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Some Reference Positions for your bird or bush

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 10:45 a.m.

In Response To: DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush? (neilkaz)

These are all dmp rollouts even though I've edited out the score. The first few positions that I'll slew together is when your opponent has only 1 checker in the air and any variation of board strength. Here you can assume your opponent has 2.5% winning chances and not be far off the mark.

Player 0	39
Player 1	61
Position ID: /z8AAEDb7oYAAA Match ID: cIksAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/6	+0.9573
			0.9786 0.0459 0.0005 - 0.0214 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9573 +0.9573 0.0001 0.0015 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821850344 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Player 0	52
Player 1	61
Position ID: 3/cAAEDb7oYAAA Match ID: cIksAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/6	+0.9519
			0.9760 0.0515 0.0006 - 0.0240 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9519 +0.9519 0.0002 0.0023 0.0002 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821817594 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Player 0	58
Player 1	61
Position ID: 790BAEDb7oYAAA Match ID: cIksAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/6	+0.9502
			0.9751 0.0642 0.0009 - 0.0249 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9502 +0.9502 0.0001 0.0025 0.0001 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821525341 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

This is what happens when hitting backfires and your opponent anchors up on your 2pt. Clearly worse for you than simply having one man trapped behind the 6 prime waiting to get closed out. You have plenty of time to trap but who is to say if GNU does or not when it should in the RO.

Player 0	72
Player 1	120
Position ID: v+cAABhs2wZIAg Match ID: cIksAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	18/14	+0.8057
			0.9028 0.1352 0.0045 - 0.0972 0.0048 0.0000 +0.8057 +0.8057 0.0006 0.0069 0.0011 - 0.0006 0.0014 0.0000 0.0012 0.0012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821609962 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Perhaps if you hit two in Neil's scenario and won the battle for the 2pt your opponent could still get lucky and anchor up on the ace. It's still clearly worse for you having the opponent anchored.

Player 0	74
Player 1	108
Position ID: v+cAADC2bQNIAg Match ID: cIksAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	18/14	+0.9049
			0.9524 0.1775 0.0086 - 0.0476 0.0011 0.0000 +0.9049 +0.9049 0.0005 0.0066 0.0013 - 0.0005 0.0006 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 822017900 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

If you do manage to close both out against a completely crunched board your win percentage shoots well over 99%. It's clear with 2 up that more of your opponent's remaining equity would be from shot equity than race equity as it is with one checker up and a crashed board.

Player 0	63
Player 1	61
Position ID: /x8AAGDb7oYAAA Match ID: cIksAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/6	+0.9942
			0.9971 0.4930 0.0459 - 0.0029 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9942 +0.9942 0.0001 0.0089 0.0050 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821835356 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

I rolled this out specifically relating to the problem as a common scenario when things go well. You'll see our win % has barely dropped since the opponent's board is still a piece of trash.

Player 0	76
Player 1	61
Position ID: v+cAAGDb7oYAAA Match ID: cIksAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/6	+0.9909
			0.9954 0.5435 0.0325 - 0.0046 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9909 +0.9909 0.0002 0.0098 0.0035 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821317657 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Showing the small but steady decline of our winning chances with two men in the air and our opponent's board strengthened.

Player 0	77
Player 1	61
Position ID: 39sAAGDb7oYAAA Match ID: cIksAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/6	+0.9831
			0.9915 0.5240 0.0267 - 0.0085 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9831 +0.9831 0.0003 0.0101 0.0031 - 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821383246 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Our win percentage 'plummets' to just under 97% with 2 up and our opponent's board ready for that luckbox shot he sometimes gets and hits.

Player 0	98
Player 1	61
Position ID: 27YDAGDb7oYAAA Match ID: cIksAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	10/6	+0.9357
			0.9679 0.5851 0.0203 - 0.0321 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9357 +0.9357 0.0008 0.0113 0.0026 - 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.0016 0.0016
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821526419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
  neilkaz -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 1:22 a.m.
  • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
    Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 1:25 a.m.
    • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
      Stick -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 1:43 a.m.
      • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
        John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 3:09 a.m.
    • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
      sal pittelli -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:00 p.m.
      • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
        sal pittelli -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:04 p.m.
      • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
        Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:04 p.m.
  • DMP..a bird in the hand or two in the bush?
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 10:37 a.m.
  • Some Reference Positions for your bird or bush
    Stick -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 10:45 a.m.
  • Rollout OTB etc
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 7:14 p.m.