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Rollouts

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 11:43 a.m.

In Response To: Rollouts (Coolrey)

Ray wrote: "My point being that the MET was not made up with an awareness of the current board position. It HAS to consider the effect of gammons, and backgammons. "

A MET does take into account gammons and backgammons; in that they assume a certain gammon rate IN THE UPCOMING GAMES.

When calculating the takepoint in the current situation, that value is irrelevant. The takepoint is calculated using the risk-reward ratio based on the MET entries for the scores that may be reached after each cube action.

So the "basic" takepoint is calculated purely from the MEs of 2a3a, 2a4a, and 100%. This gives you 17.5% (or whatever). If there were gammons or recubes in the offing, THEN you would need to refine your calculation.

But I'm sure you know this, so I'm not sure what you are getting at.

-- Ian (confused)

Messages In This Thread

• Interesting Cube v. Ray
  Stick -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 5:50 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube v. Ray
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 6:03 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube v. Ray
    David Rockwell -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 6:51 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube v. Ray
    neilkaz -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 7:08 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube v. Ray
    Neil Robins -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 9:02 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube v. Ray
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 12:28 a.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 9:35 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 10:12 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 10:13 a.m.
      • Rollouts
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 10:57 a.m.
        • Rollouts
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 4:40 p.m.
          • Rollouts
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 7:46 p.m.
            • Rollouts
              Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 8:56 p.m.
              • Rollouts
                Sam Pottle -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:59 a.m.
                • Rollouts
                  Coolrey -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 11:06 a.m.
      • Rollouts
        Stick -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 11:09 a.m.
        • Rollouts
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 4:35 p.m.
          • Rollouts
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 7:33 p.m.
            • Rollouts
              Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 8:26 p.m.
              • Rollouts
                Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 11:43 a.m.
                • Rollouts
                  Coolrey -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 1:07 p.m.
                  • Rollouts
                    Stick -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:12 p.m.
    • A better Rollout?
      Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 10:38 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 1:38 p.m.
      • Rollouts
        Stick -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 1:39 p.m.
        • Rollouts
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 2:13 p.m.
          • Rollouts
            Stick -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 2:31 p.m.