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Rollouts

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 1:07 p.m.

In Response To: Rollouts (Ian Shaw)

good point, Ian. After 30 years of this I am not at all sure about some things... Like why Stick's double would be wrong unless 155% of all players passed in a position that was better, though not possible, than the one he doubled me in OTB which the bot said was wrong unless 32% of players passed.

Seems to me that we take bot answers as gospel. A computer generated MET, takes all of that stuff gammons and backgammons into account... How it does that exactly... or how Kit Woosey did it or Kleinman before him, I don't really know.

So I guess what I was saying was the highest possible percentage for my take point would be 17.5, given that those tables are arrived at using 25% for gammon rate and whatever for backgammons. As it turns out... everyone spouting off 17.5% in here is wrong, using the exact table figures... My take point is 18.0xx or so. Haha, isn't it funny that we humans can state in writing something is 17.5, when we arrived at that by rounding off the numbers in the table in the first place to make the math easier to do?? Using rounded numbers, I calculated my take point at 17.5. So all this technology is not so much better than 30 years of experience in the end...

For at the table I knew my take point might be as low as 18%, and acted accordingly. My rollout shows me to have 25% in the position. BIG take, mistake to double, end of story.

Messages In This Thread

• Interesting Cube v. Ray
  Stick -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 5:50 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube v. Ray
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 6:03 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube v. Ray
    David Rockwell -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 6:51 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube v. Ray
    neilkaz -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 7:08 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube v. Ray
    Neil Robins -- Monday, 6 April 2009, at 9:02 p.m.
  • Interesting Cube v. Ray
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 12:28 a.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 9:35 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 10:12 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 10:13 a.m.
      • Rollouts
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 10:57 a.m.
        • Rollouts
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 4:40 p.m.
          • Rollouts
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 7:46 p.m.
            • Rollouts
              Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 8:56 p.m.
              • Rollouts
                Sam Pottle -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:59 a.m.
                • Rollouts
                  Coolrey -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 11:06 a.m.
      • Rollouts
        Stick -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 11:09 a.m.
        • Rollouts
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 4:35 p.m.
          • Rollouts
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 7:33 p.m.
            • Rollouts
              Coolrey -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 8:26 p.m.
              • Rollouts
                Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 11:43 a.m.
                • Rollouts
                  Coolrey -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 1:07 p.m.
                  • Rollouts
                    Stick -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:12 p.m.
    • A better Rollout?
      Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 10:38 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 1:38 p.m.
      • Rollouts
        Stick -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 1:39 p.m.
        • Rollouts
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 2:13 p.m.
          • Rollouts
            Stick -- Tuesday, 7 April 2009, at 2:31 p.m.