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BGonline.org Forums
Rollouts
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Rollouts (Coolrey)
Date: Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 2:12 p.m.
This thread is killing me so I'm going to waste 15 minutes of my life and clear a couple of things up, though not everything I'm sure because I was attempting to reply no longer...we see how well that worked.
The gammonless take point for -2 -5 for the leader is:
Pass: Ahead -2 -4 for 67%
T+W: Match won, 100%
T+L: Ahead -2 -3 for 60%
So you're risking 7%, the difference between 67% and 60%, to gain 33%, the difference between 100% and 67%. That's between 4 and 5 to 1 odds on the take. I know from memory I use 18% as my TP here and looking at GNU's non rounded figures the exact gammonless TP is 18.034%.
Gammons must be figured in to most take points because they're generally possible. When figuring them in we have to have the gammon price or gammon value of our opponent's gammons at that score. Rather than reinvent the wheel in my own thread jump on over to one of Kit's article on the 5pt match.
My rollout shows me to have 25% in the position. BIG take, mistake to double, end of story
Your rollout must be magical. I think it has been shown twice in this thread, separate rollouts by separate ppl on the highest accepted settings with a bot that knows how to play AtS that after cubing I win just over 78%. That's a far cry from 75% and my cube is anywhere from a .02 to .06 error. Of course it's a big take, but if I counted on my opponent's to know what they were doing all the time I wouldn't be having half this discussion. A very unusual position indeed but incorrect to tag it as a mistake to cube. I would label it a mistake not to cube.
You don't win tournaments with lightning fast plays, either
There is no point in me reflecting on something I've already considered and know I'm going to cube. What's good for you isn't necessarily good for me. To appreciate something like this sick run you'll have to know a bit about the game. My point being what works for you doesn't have to work for everyone. I'm sure plenty of ppl told him over his career he should slow down.
Rick Barry not only showing you you can do it your own way and succeed, but that the coach screaming what I'm saying. One last do it whatever way works for you, and boom goes the dynamite.
When I realized that the worst possible mistake with the cube is to double EARLY, and I can't play like a bot,
I don't agree to that blanket statement and I can surely play this position out like a bot.
15 minutes are up, I'm getting bored, the only reason I lasted this long was the highlight reel.
Stick
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