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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 9 April 2009, at 3:54 p.m.

In Response To: Hickey v. Stickey (Cleveland) #3 (Stick)

This rollout got stuck so I can't add any additional trials without starting a completely new rollout. GNU had a real hard time in the first 1k trials realizing this is a pass. Hundreds of trials in it had it as a huge ND, then it turned to borderling, and it almost seemed it was learning and by the end was getting to the pass range. I support this being a clear pass still even with Mary's checker up and I did so OtB.

The score (after 1 game) is: Mary 2, Stick 0 (match to 11 points)

Move number 7: Mary on roll, cube decision?

Mary	147
Stick	197
Position ID: 0Bl5ADrMzsIBUA Match ID: MAFgASAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.7160	(Money: +0.7272)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9963
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0037
3.	No double	+0.9289	-0.0675
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6403 0.4009 0.1012 - 0.3597 0.0527 0.0029 +0.7160 +0.9289 Standard error 0.0052 0.0059 0.0070 - 0.0052 0.0016 0.0004 0.0195 0.0457 Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.6425 0.4086 0.1072 - 0.3575 0.0529 0.0020 +1.4478 +0.9963 Standard error 0.0065 0.0078 0.0088 - 0.0065 0.0019 0.0007 0.0506 0.0614
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1186 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821171126 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Hickey v. Stickey (Cleveland) #3
  Stick -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 3:03 p.m.
  • Hickey v. Stickey (Cleveland) #3
    Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 3:33 p.m.
  • Hickey v. Stickey (Cleveland) #3
    pontiac -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 5:40 p.m.
  • Hickey v. Stickey (Cleveland) #3
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 6:33 p.m.
  • Hickey v. Stickey (Cleveland) #3
    David -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 7:55 p.m.
  • Hickey v. Stickey (Cleveland) #3
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 8:10 p.m.
  • Hickey v. Stickey (Cleveland) #3
    Marv Porten -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 9:44 p.m.
  • Hickey v. Stickey (Cleveland) #3
    Stein Kulseth -- Wednesday, 8 April 2009, at 10:08 p.m.
  • Hickey v. Stickey (Cleveland) #3
    misja -- Thursday, 9 April 2009, at 7:05 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Thursday, 9 April 2009, at 3:54 p.m.