Rollout

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Rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 13 April 2009, at 11:50 p.m.

In Response To: Another Cube Decision from Master's Finals in OH (neilkaz)

Off to BK I go for this as I just don't have a good enough game here to cube.
The score (after 4 games) is: Rod Covlin 3, Neil Kazaross 3 (match to 11 points)
Move number 6: Neil Kazaross on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Rod Covlin 152, Neil Kazaross 159
Position ID: Ys/gATCw2+ABUA Match ID: cAlgATAAGAAA

• Neil Kazaross doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.1259)! [bad]

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity +0.3495 (Money: +0.3373)

Cubeful equities:

1. No double +0.5500

2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.4500

3. Double, take +0.4240 -0.1259

Proper cube action: No double, take (21.9%)

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Centered 1-cube 0.6276 0.1924 0.0102 - 0.3724 0.1151 0.0055 +0.3495 +0.5500

Standard error 0.0020 0.0024 0.0010 - 0.0020 0.0018 0.0009 0.0057 0.0152

Player Rod Covlin owns 2-cube 0.6282 0.1933 0.0154 - 0.3718 0.1151 0.0088 +0.7511 +0.4240

Standard error 0.0023 0.0030 0.0017 - 0.0023 0.0024 0.0020 0.0132 0.0230

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

931 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821286952 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]