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BGonline.org Forums
Race and contact
Posted By: Philippe Michel In Response To: Race and contact (Ian Shaw)
Date: Tuesday, 14 April 2009, at 6:55 p.m.
7 pips seem too much. The board is the lower points ; if I count right, dancing costs 100/36 pips on average or only 2.8 pips out of 8 1/6. Summed over a few rolls, I would guess it amounts to about 5.
Besides that :
* Blue's position is not really stacked : 2-2 and 3-3 don't work.
* My understanding is that the -4 in the 2 stragglers formula comes from the flexibility in the bear-in brought by two checkers instead of one. With a 4 points board, this looks less valuable than in properly stacked positions (but maybe one should not handicap Blue twice since this feature and the previous one are related).
* Usually, the contact helps the underdog but here it looks like White gets indirects but often jumps into a direct shot. It's not clear who gets the best of it.All in all, White's deficit looks thin. Trice suggests the point of last take is the number of rolls (10 here) minus 3 and the redouble one less. I think Blue leads by less than 6, so No Double.
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