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OTB, rollout etc etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 7:25 p.m.

In Response To: Match score cube from Master rd of 32 (neilkaz)

OTB Bob slotted, which is a play I agree with at this score. My missing 52 is not good at all, but I am rather sure that the rollouts say to split. (I'll run some games of 52B to be more sure).

Bob wasted no time cubing me, which I also felt was quite clear (likely by at least .050) but some other w/c players were of the opinion that Bob might have done better to wait for a cube that wasn't a big scoop. However, I can really be in trouble and have a big pass next turn at this score so I feel Bob's cube is very clear. OTB I was quickly in difficulties but rolled a couple jokers and weaseled out of it to win 15-11.

The score (after 0 games) is: Bob Glass 11, neilkaz 13 (match to 15 points)

Move number 5: Bob Glass on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Bob Glass 162, neilkaz 160
Position ID: 4PPgASTQc+EBMA Match ID: MAHgAbAAaAAA

• Bob Glass doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.3428	(Money: +0.1663)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8231
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1769
3.	No double	+0.7330	-0.0901
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.5677 0.1869 0.0154 - 0.4323 0.1484 0.0230 +0.3428 +0.7330 Standard error 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 - 0.0016 0.0039 0.0024 0.0065 0.0100 Player neilkaz owns 2-cube 0.5715 0.1907 0.0217 - 0.4285 0.1696 0.0318 +0.8231 +0.8231 Standard error 0.0019 0.0019 0.0021 - 0.0019 0.0048 0.0030 0.0122 0.0122
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1938 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 818728893 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Match score cube from Master rd of 32
  neilkaz -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 3:58 a.m.
  • Match score cube from Master rd of 32
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 4:05 a.m.
    • Match score cube from Master rd of 32
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 8:10 a.m.
  • Match score cube from Master rd of 32
    Stein Kulseth -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 9:18 a.m.
    • Match score cube from Master rd of 32
      rew -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 9:30 a.m.
  • Match score cube from Master rd of 32
    David Rockwell -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 11:32 a.m.
    • Match score cube from Master rd of 32
      Petter Bengtsson -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 12:59 p.m.
      • Match score cube from Master rd of 32
        misja -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 1:12 p.m.
      • Match score cube from Master rd of 32
        David Rockwell -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 2:32 p.m.
  • Match score cube from Master rd of 32
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 4:38 p.m.
  • OTB, rollout etc etc
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 16 April 2009, at 7:25 p.m.
    • OTB, rollout etc etc
      David Rockwell -- Friday, 17 April 2009, at 4:14 p.m.
    • Rollout of cube after 52B was about .85 take
      neilkaz -- Friday, 17 April 2009, at 8:07 p.m.