OTB and having had a similar decision a couple years ago I knew this was very close. I did the math as best as I could and also it was still very close. Feeling that I can play somewhat stronger than Tom (not that I have proved it this weekend) should have lead me to not risk the whole match here, but things aren't good for me when I lose this game and trail 4-0 to 10. Anyhow...knowing that I just had time to buy back if I lost a G here swung my decision towards hitting which obviously wins this game more often. Of course I was hit and closed out and couldn't come close to saving.
LOL..I buy back...they tell me my opp is Steve Sax...then I am told Steve is playing Larry L..and that if there isn't an opp for me before dinner break is called I will be refunded that buy back money. Aha..a Japanese player buys back at the last minute and since I had a big breakfast, playing thru dinner break is no issue except that I will likely have to play my Masters right after. Anyhow..this Japanese guy played really well and also had a near perfect command of opening roll replies even at match scores that most of us who haven't studied the rollouts here don't have. I fight back from well behind and push hard for the undoubled G with a 12-11 lead and get it, only to lose the next 3 games including getting by a 10 shot at DMP (just how rob Meier beat me earlier..nice match Rob !!)
After this it was almost 8:30 and I was so hungry that I could'a taken a bite out of my Super JP opp's arm..fortunately my dice knew this as I cruised to an easy victory, likely with a +20 luck factor.
The score (after 0 games) is: Tom W 1, neilkaz 5 (match to 15 points)
Move number 8: neilkaz to play 13
Pip counts: Tom W 96, neilkaz 55
Position ID: trsBBQK/dxAAIA Match ID: U4nsARAAKAAA
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 8/4 | -0.7632 | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 818053674 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | R | 8/5*/4 | -0.7772 ( -0.0140) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 818053674 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 2 | 8/5* 2/1 | -0.7908 ( -0.0276) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 0.1626 0.0269 0.0000 - 0.8374 0.1494 0.0000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 2 | 8/5* 3/2 | -0.8241 ( -0.0609) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 0.1549 0.0259 0.0000 - 0.8451 0.1705 0.0000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||