[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Checker up or Checker off?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Tuesday, 21 April 2009, at 1:17 a.m.

In Response To: Checker up or Checker off? (dc-ohio)

Counting pips the hit takes away 4 from him for sure. He'll fan 1/4th of the time and lose an avg of slightly more than 5 pips. Including hyperpips a loss of about 5.4 pips.

The hit often costs you a roll which is worth 8 pips. If you get 2 aces it doesn't though. 2 aces in next three rolls is less than 3(1/3)^2*(2/3)+(1/3)^3 = 7/27. So I think you will give back that crucial crossover less than 1/4 of the time. So I estimate getting even is worth about 6 effective pips.

6 > 5.4 and you also avoid the .5% or so losses. Another factor is that the hit makes the race slightly longer for both of you and gives more variability in the number of rolls needed for both players. You look like a favorite to win the gammon so those factors argue against the hit. Looks like 6/3 2/off.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.