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Rollout..mine and OTB

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 10:12 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (tem_sat)

First of all, I recalled the score was 5-1 here, and my match recorder checked and he missed a game. That will make this a poor double at that score. OTB I felt that there was a good chance of getting a pass here and also realized that I am winning a G close to half the time here which nearly ends the match. However, my opp muttered something about needing big cubes vs me and promptly snatched it and turned it around and I lost a G after making a slightly big play trying to win with that 31 I posted earlier. Live and learn, but one thing I continue to learn is that players like to take my large cubes. Tom also played this match at a 3.3 per GNU's equiv Snowie ER which is quite good.

The score (after 4 games) is: Tom Wheeler 1, Neil Kazaross 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 21: Neil Kazaross on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Tom Wheeler 153, Neil Kazaross 115
Position ID: zM5gDEHbZsBgBA Match ID: UQngARAAIAAA

• Neil Kazaross doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0092)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6475	(Money: +0.6879)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.8129
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1871
3.	Double, take	+0.8037	-0.0092
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (4.7%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Neil Kazaross owns 2-cube 0.6632 0.4540 0.0072 - 0.3368 0.0958 0.0040 +0.6475 +0.8129 Standard error 0.0019 0.0029 0.0005 - 0.0019 0.0019 0.0004 0.0055 0.0107 Player Tom Wheeler owns 4-cube 0.6748 0.4800 0.0059 - 0.3252 0.0873 0.0042 +1.2539 +0.8037 Standard error 0.0021 0.0039 0.0017 - 0.0021 0.0020 0.0011 0.0120 0.0184
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
852 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 818160179 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Vegas Recube action
  neilkaz -- Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 3:04 a.m.
  • Vegas Recube action
    misja -- Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 7:45 a.m.
  • Vegas Recube action
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 9:24 a.m.
  • Vegas Recube action
    Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 1:22 p.m.
  • Vegas Recube action
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 4:18 p.m.
  • Vegas Recube action
    David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 7:37 p.m.
  • Rollout
    tem_sat -- Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 8:09 p.m.
    • Rollout
      David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 9:01 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 23 April 2009, at 2:00 a.m.
        • Rollout
          neilkaz -- Thursday, 23 April 2009, at 3:46 a.m.
    • Rollout..mine and OTB
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 22 April 2009, at 10:12 p.m.