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Line to win the 2009 ABT

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 25 April 2009, at 7:35 a.m.

In Response To: Line to win the 2009 ABT (Bill Riles)

Your estimate of my chances of winning the ABT at 100/1 seems high. If I win Novi, I'll be favored to win the ABT, right? There will probably be 90-100 entries so the average player is around 100/1 to win the thing. Assuming I'm 55/45 vs. the median player in the field and there are 96 entrants (which would mean 64 of us would have to play in the rd of 128 and 32 of us would get byes), then I'm a little less than 2% to win, a little over 49/1. Plus there's the chance of losing one along the way, winning the loser's bracket, and beating the undefeated bracket winner twice in the finals.

I also plan on LV again in the fall.

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