[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Gammon Win % with 2 up + Moving Spare

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 1:05 p.m.

In Response To: Gammon Win % with 2 up + Moving Spare (rew)

One man closed out and 2 on the mid gets g'd ~25% of the time. One closed out and 2 on the 18 gets g'd ~50%. I remember reading a G-village article by Doug Zare dealing with these kind of positions. His rule of thumb was that your chances of getting off the gammon with one closed out and outfield checkers n pips away from your 6-point is roughly equivalent to your winning a 50 pip race on roll trailing by n-20 pips. So with 2 on the mid, n = 14; with 2 on the 18, n = 24. Your chances of getting off the g in the former are roughly equal to your chances of winning a race on roll ahead 50-56 which is about 75% vs. on roll trailing 50-46 in the latter which is around 50%. It's a good rule to keep in mind and works OK in most positions but not so well if you have lots of crossovers (i.e. 4 on the 7 and 4 on the 8 is a lot worse than having 2 on the 12 even though both positions have 12 outside pips).

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.