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More cube action after taking my earlier post

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Thursday, 30 April 2009, at 10:47 p.m.

In Response To: More cube action after taking my earlier post (Bob Koca)

Because if you don't double the cube is still available to you at the next turn. Why burn up brain cells when your ORIENTATION should be to be CAREFUL? Leading 6-3/9 and rewhipping requires a VERY strong position. This fact is not lost on any of us in this forum here. Doubling is very commital.

A gammon is probably just as likely as a loss, and in EITHER case you don't want the cube to be higher than it is now. It can't help to send it over to him unless you are SURE he is going to pass. Maybe he is slamming his checkers around, or gives you some other sign. Rory doubled because he wanted to win the match FASTER... I believe. Faster is not better. All signs point toward the conservative fork in this road.

BTW I am sure all of you have noticed that I put some bunko match equity numbers in my post before... Rory can only GAIN 10% or so depending on the MET by redoubling this position... From 8*-3/9 to 100%. So the threshold of his redoubling window is even HIGHER.

Reaching 90% is not the same as reaching 100%. You only win 9 out of 10 not all 10. But doubling later may cause your opponent to make a mistake, the only one making a mistake now is the redoubler. People contributing to this forum are, in general, favorites in their matches outside of it. That means that it will be harder for their opponents to string together wins at the end of a match. Many opponents sort of give up when they get down this far and start pushing wood. This is especially true if you publicly drag them through the mud in front of their peers in this game... By not doubling you tell him subliminally, you are NOT going to get a chance to get lucky in THIS game, and everyone watching can see that too. Perhaps even your next opponent who is only now gaining a full measure of respect that may pay you dividends in your upcoming match! Holding the cube you can be more bold going for the Gammon if you want to, and you won't be making any plays out of fear because the cube is on 8.

Anything can happen but I'd rather have some guy try to come back and win 3 to 4 games in a row, than open the door for him to get lucky in just one.

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