[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Two rollouts - two match equity tables

Posted By: rew
Date: Friday, 1 May 2009, at 7:20 a.m.

In Response To: More Lopsided Score Cube Action (adambulldog)

Here I have 2 rollouts using the same settings but with different match equity tables. 1 : G11 which is the gnu standard and people at this forum seem to prefer and 2 : Snowie met which is used in snowie 4.

They show a big/semi huge difference of about 0.170.

Basically the g11 met says your takepoint is (18 fully live - 28 dead) is lower than snowie met (20.5 fully live - 31.3 dead) by about 2%, while the gammon price is about the same.

Also worth noting is that you only win about 21.5% while you are losing 24% gammon and winning 3% gammon. This means that your gammon net loss of approx 18% means very little at this score despte a gammon price of 0.35.

In the g11 met situation you are only 3.5% above your fully live takepoint and still it is a small take with about 18% gammonlosses. On top of that I cant imagine that you get full potential of the cube here, so it is not fully live, but obviously it is almost fully live.

If the trailer gets to recube in a big portion of the games where he eventually loses a gammon this explains why you can take with g11.

One final note : Ive seen some rollout results lately that shows me that the impact of the match equity used is probably more important than what is common opinion.

G11 ---- Cube analysis Rollout cubeless equity +0,6958 (Money: +0,7597)

Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take +0,9540 2. Double, pass +1,0000 ( +0,0460) 3. No double +0,8774 ( -0,0766) Proper cube action: Double, take Rollout details: Centered 1-cube: 0,7798 0,2171 0,0191 - 0,2202 0,0353 0,0008 CL +0,6958 CF +0,8774 [0,0018 0,0040 0,0032 - 0,0018 0,0011 0,0002 CL 0,0056 CF 0,0111] Player pl0 owns 2-cube: 0,7841 0,2432 0,0450 - 0,2159 0,0325 0,0019 CL +1,2657 CF +0,9540 [0,0022 0,0059 0,0054 - 0,0022 0,0014 0,0008 CL 0,0137 CF 0,0180] Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819193728 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Snowie met ------ Cube analysis Rollout cubeless equity +0,7198 (Money: +0,7534)

Cubeful equities: 1. Double, pass +1,0000 2. Double, take +1,1204 ( +0,1204) 3. No double +0,9443 ( -0,0557) Proper cube action: Double, pass Rollout details: Centered 1-cube: 0,7783 0,2153 0,0190 - 0,2217 0,0364 0,0010 CL +0,7198 CF +0,9443 [0,0016 0,0046 0,0031 - 0,0016 0,0009 0,0004 CL 0,0058 CF 0,0102] Player pl0 owns 2-cube: 0,7833 0,2370 0,0439 - 0,2167 0,0331 0,0008 CL +1,4346 CF +1,1204 [0,0021 0,0065 0,0055 - 0,0021 0,0011 0,0001 CL 0,0134 CF 0,0165] Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819070720 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.