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Holding game cube

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 4 May 2009, at 1:25 a.m.

In Response To: Holding game cube (dc-ohio)

Looks like a close take/pass decision to me. Blue's takepoint ATS is the normal 25% plus about 8/9 of White's net g's less redoubling vig. White probably wins about 6% net g's here so Blue needs 30% less cube vig to take. White's 4-cube takepoint is around 32% ATS, but how often will Blue be able to offer an efficient recube? Not very often IMHO. He won't be able to redouble on the come if he gets a winning direct shot - he'll have to wait until he hits it and then he probably will have lost his market by a mile. His chances of converting to a winning race and finding an efficient recube are extremely small. About the only ways for Blue to find an efficient recube here are 1) If he gets a winning double shot or 2) If he hits a shot when White has 6 or more men off. So I think the cube is worth less than normal to Blue in this position. I'll guess that cube ownership lowers Blue's takepoint by around 3.5% meaning Blue needs 26.5% cubeless chances to take. Can he win it this often? I think so, but not by much.

D/T.

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