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BGonline.org Forums
Calculating the best/worst scenario in a race
Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: Calculating the best/worst scenario in a race (Matt Reklaitis)
Date: Friday, 8 May 2009, at 8:26 p.m.
I see your point.
Of course, your proposed tweak does not quite do the job either.
Say you have 6 on the ace and 3 on the 4 point. After 3 rolls, it becomes your counterexample position of 1(3) 2(3)
What I was thinking of before proposing my simpler but wrong formula was the following:
a = # checkers on acepoint
d = # checkers on 2 pt + 2*#checkers on 3&4 pts + 3*#checkers on 5&6 pts
if a <= d then r = roundup( pipcount/3 )
if a > d then r = d + roundup( (a-d) / 2 )
The idea here is that we play an ace off the acepoint and move the deuce elsewhere. If we run out of deuces before aces, then we need to add a roll for every 2 checkers that remain on the acepoint.
Note: this only applies once the bearoff has started. Obviously we can't bear off a checker from the ace if all the checkers are not yet home.
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