BGonline.org Forums

Advanced Backgammon part 23C ROLLOUT

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 9 May 2009, at 1:39 a.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon part 23C (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Position 227:

Hitting is pretty clear as White is a favorite to crack whether he's hit or not, and the gammons jump through the roof. Not hitting would be a consideration only when Gs don't count.

12/10, preserving as much timing as possible, is slightly ahead of 7/5, because White is fairly far advanced. Push White's position back a bit more and a smoother bearin becomes more important.

Move number 5: Blue to play 12

White	112
Blue	80
Position ID: tt0BATC27Q4EAA Match ID: QYkIAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 13/12*/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/12*/10	+1.01368
			0.86224 0.32450 0.02580 - 0.13776 0.00061 0.00001 +1.07417 +1.01368 0.00037 0.00045 0.00019 - 0.00037 0.00005 0.00000 0.00083 0.00111
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			17716 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812790337 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/12* 7/5	+1.01070 ( -0.00298)
			0.85906 0.32926 0.02707 - 0.14094 0.00081 0.00002 +1.07362 +1.01070 0.00038 0.00045 0.00019 - 0.00038 0.00005 0.00000 0.00084 0.00114
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			17709 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812790337 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/10	+0.87892 ( -0.13476)
			0.90246 0.10904 0.00257 - 0.09754 0.00069 0.00001 +0.91583 +0.87892 0.00098 0.00125 0.00026 - 0.00098 0.00015 0.00000 0.00226 0.00281
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1295 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 812790337 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 228:

Here White has so much timing that a smooth bearin seems to take precedence. The stripped 4 point is bad, so much so that GNU is willing to pay off to both 66 and 55 next.

Move number 7: Blue to play 61

White	179
Blue	79
Position ID: 2O4AAG7udgMUAA Match ID: QQkHAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 14/7

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	14/8 5/4	+1.1794
			0.7757 0.6017 0.1410 - 0.2243 0.0003 0.0000 +1.2937 +1.1794 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 - 0.0010 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027 0.0036
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			7351 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819587560 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	15/8	+1.1661 ( -0.0132)
			0.7716 0.5981 0.1418 - 0.2284 0.0003 0.0000 +1.2828 +1.1661 0.0010 0.0009 0.0010 - 0.0010 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027 0.0035
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			7349 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819587560 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	14/7	+1.1655 ( -0.0139)
			0.7716 0.5958 0.1421 - 0.2284 0.0003 0.0000 +1.2807 +1.1655 0.0011 0.0010 0.0011 - 0.0011 0.0003 0.0000 0.0030 0.0039
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			6158 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819587560 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 229:

An interesting position. After 13/12 13/10, 44 makes the two point. However, a couple of Blue's rolls play pretty awkwardly (especially 64 and 66). Since White probably won't crack this roll Blue should preserve a playable 6 to the bar point, since then he'll have a 5 to play without breaking the bar. Timing is the nature of the game.

Move number 9: Blue to play 31

White	114
Blue	89
Position ID: tm1FADDc7QYGAA Match ID: QYkFAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 13/12 13/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/9	+0.8133
			0.8756 0.1072 0.0027 - 0.1244 0.0045 0.0001 +0.8564 +0.8133 0.0004 0.0005 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0001 0.0000 0.0010 0.0012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			8820 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813928154 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/10 6/5	+0.8078 ( -0.0055)
			0.8738 0.1058 0.0027 - 0.1262 0.0049 0.0001 +0.8511 +0.8078 0.0004 0.0005 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0001 0.0000 0.0009 0.0012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			8820 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813928154 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	13/12 13/10	+0.8004 ( -0.0129)
			0.8705 0.1073 0.0030 - 0.1295 0.0055 0.0001 +0.8458 +0.8004 0.0008 0.0009 0.0002 - 0.0008 0.0003 0.0000 0.0018 0.0023
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2565 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 813928154 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 230:

Robertie's right here. Blue can be safe on 66 and 55 but it isn't really worth it. Maintaining a smooth bearin while preparing to clear the 6 is best and leaves a shot only on 55. Centered cube (Jacobyless) rollout agreed.

Move number 5: Blue to play 43

White	181
Blue	79
Position ID: sNdgAGy23SkBAA Match ID: QQkOAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 8/4 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/4 6/3	+1.2080
			0.7885 0.6141 0.1263 - 0.2115 0.0002 0.0000 +1.3173 +1.2080 0.0010 0.0010 0.0009 - 0.0010 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027 0.0035
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			8972 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819401483 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	11/4	+1.1922 ( -0.0159)
			0.7840 0.6113 0.1245 - 0.2160 0.0001 0.0000 +1.3037 +1.1922 0.0009 0.0009 0.0008 - 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0025 0.0033
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			8962 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819401483 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	11/7 6/3	+1.1913 ( -0.0168)
			0.7841 0.6117 0.1231 - 0.2159 0.0003 0.0000 +1.3028 +1.1913 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 - 0.0011 0.0001 0.0000 0.0031 0.0040
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			6802 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819401483 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	9/5 6/3	+1.1766 ( -0.0315)
			0.7793 0.6080 0.1248 - 0.2207 0.0001 0.0000 +1.2913 +1.1766 0.0015 0.0014 0.0012 - 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0043 0.0054
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			4673 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819401483 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	9/6 8/4	+1.1714 ( -0.0367)
			0.7773 0.6040 0.1277 - 0.2227 0.0000 0.0000 +1.2863 +1.1714 0.0014 0.0013 0.0012 - 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0037 0.0049
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			4664 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819401483 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	11/7 8/5	+1.1664 ( -0.0417)
			0.7764 0.6083 0.1268 - 0.2236 0.0002 0.0000 +1.2877 +1.1664 0.0025 0.0023 0.0021 - 0.0025 0.0000 0.0000 0.0070 0.0089
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1736 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819401483 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	R	11/8 9/5	+1.1630 ( -0.0451)
			0.7754 0.6030 0.1235 - 0.2246 0.0001 0.0000 +1.2773 +1.1630 0.0022 0.0021 0.0019 - 0.0022 0.0000 0.0000 0.0057 0.0075
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1735 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819401483 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	8	R	8/4 5/2	+1.1614 ( -0.0467)
			0.7759 0.6057 0.1198 - 0.2241 0.0003 0.0000 +1.2770 +1.1614 0.0013 0.0013 0.0011 - 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0033 0.0045
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			4668 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 819401483 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Advanced Backgammon part 23C
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 12:47 a.m.
  • Centered cube on problem 230?
    Petter Bengtsson -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 2:49 a.m.
    • Centered cube on problem 230?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 4:07 a.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon part 23C
    misja -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 3:49 p.m.
    • Advanced Backgammon part 23C
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 5:08 p.m.
    • Advanced Backgammon part 23C
      mikeg -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 8:32 p.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon part 23C
    Samir -- Friday, 8 May 2009, at 12:09 a.m.
  • Robertie's picks
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 8 May 2009, at 2:39 a.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon part 23C ROLLOUT
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 9 May 2009, at 1:39 a.m.
    • Advanced Backgammon part 23C ROLLOUT
      Ian Shaw -- Monday, 11 May 2009, at 9:42 a.m.
      • Advanced Backgammon part 23C ROLLOUT
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 11 May 2009, at 10:24 a.m.
        • Advanced Backgammon part 23C ROLLOUT
          Rich Munitz -- Monday, 11 May 2009, at 4:45 p.m.