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It is not correct

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:57 p.m.

In Response To: Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed! (Marv Porten)

This math is not logical. You can't take the expected value (the mode) into the equation and assume it happens all of the time. (I run into this misconception frequently in my work as an actuary. It's even written in the tax code in various places.) You need to work with an enumeration of all of the possibilities (i.e. chance of winning zero in four, one in four, two in four, etc.) and the probability of each. When you do that, you will run into other mathematical problems. It would be best to cut short this analysis. Take cubes that are takeable.

Messages In This Thread

• Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
  Marv Porten -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 7:32 p.m.
  • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:00 p.m.
    • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
      Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:08 p.m.
      • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:15 p.m.
  • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
    Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:06 p.m.
  • It is not correct
    David Rockwell -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:57 p.m.
  • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 11 May 2009, at 12:46 a.m.
    • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
      Marv Porten -- Monday, 11 May 2009, at 1:52 a.m.
      • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 11 May 2009, at 1:33 p.m.