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Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 11 May 2009, at 12:46 a.m.

In Response To: Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed! (Marv Porten)

I don't understand how you arrive at the conclusion that your MWC if you take all 4 cubes and win the expected 1 in 4 is equal to your MWC trailing 2-6 to 11. That's incorrect for any of the 4 scores you list. The correct way to look at it is that if your winning chances are equal to whatever your takepoint is at the particular score then your MWC is exactly the same if you take or pass.

For example, look at 0-3 to 11 using G11. Drop makes it 0-4 with 29.732% MWC. Take and lose makes it 0-5 with 24.371 MWC, take and win makes it 2-3 with 44.507% MWC. The takepoint (assuming no recube vig) is then 26.62%. If your chances are above this, you should take. If below, pass. If exactly this, then it doesn't matter.

If your chances are exactly 26.62%: 26.62%*.44507 + 73.38%*.24371 = 29.732%, the same MWC you get from passing.

Messages In This Thread

• Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
  Marv Porten -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 7:32 p.m.
  • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:00 p.m.
    • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
      Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:08 p.m.
      • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:15 p.m.
  • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
    Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:06 p.m.
  • It is not correct
    David Rockwell -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:57 p.m.
  • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 11 May 2009, at 12:46 a.m.
    • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
      Marv Porten -- Monday, 11 May 2009, at 1:52 a.m.
      • Is this correct?: In matchplay, certain takeable cubes should be passed!
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 11 May 2009, at 1:33 p.m.