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Long rollout

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 13 May 2009, at 5:09 p.m.

In Response To: GG match cube (Coolrey)

Not a huge error to cube, and again from a practical standpoint you may get a pass. I'll now roll this out at 0-0 where I expect the high vol to make it a proper recube.

The score (after 0 games) is: Opp 1, ntk 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 5: Opp on roll, cube decision?

Opp	124
ntk	75
Position ID: 89sGAEDWbQMAHA Match ID: AQHgABAAAAAA

• Opp doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0742)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4015	(Money: +0.4137)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.6714
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.3286
3.	Double, take	+0.5972	-0.0742
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (18.4%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Opp owns 2-cube 0.6958 0.1146 0.0064 - 0.3042 0.0950 0.0039 +0.4015 +0.6714 Standard error 0.0011 0.0017 0.0009 - 0.0011 0.0013 0.0007 0.0030 0.0049 Player ntk owns 4-cube 0.7142 0.1203 0.0133 - 0.2858 0.1171 0.0254 +0.8653 +0.5972 Standard error 0.0011 0.0025 0.0016 - 0.0011 0.0029 0.0024 0.0066 0.0075
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1969 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858249311 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• GG match cube
  Coolrey -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 12:30 a.m.
  • GG match cube
    David -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 1:10 a.m.
  • GG match cube
    Keene -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 3:55 a.m.
  • GG match cube
    Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 6:16 a.m.
  • GG match cube
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:06 a.m.
    • GG match cube
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 4:16 p.m.
  • GG match cube
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 4:22 p.m.
  • GG match cube
    Samir -- Sunday, 10 May 2009, at 9:43 p.m.
  • GG match cube
    Ian Shaw -- Monday, 11 May 2009, at 9:28 a.m.
  • GG match cube
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 13 May 2009, at 1:21 a.m.
    • Long rollout
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 13 May 2009, at 5:09 p.m.
      • Rollout at 0-0
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 13 May 2009, at 5:51 p.m.
        • Rollout at 0-0
          Coolrey -- Friday, 15 May 2009, at 10:16 p.m.
    • GG match cube
      Stick -- Wednesday, 13 May 2009, at 5:31 p.m.