Interesting ... I wondered which play would come out on top. I too would have reinforced the 8 pt. and brought another builder into the zone. (to make the bar or 5 pt., lots of builders) I figured it would be close because the run, bar/21/16 ducks out of the way of the candlesticks White has created. It also aims that checker at the 11 pt. which if made could be very useful for controlling the 5 pt. After the hit Blue is significantly ahead in the race and not exactly looking to anchor but looking to escape, so that too adds appeal for the straight run. (up 24 pips!) I will extend this rollout and repost it if the results change. I'm posting it now because I'll be gone all day tomorrow and part of the next day for Thanksgiving. I'll get a position posted on Friday though, so check back if you can.
| 154 |                          |
| 160 | |
| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | bar/21* 13/8 | 0.525 | |
| 1.5% 21.6% 61.7% 38.3% 9.0% 0.5% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.371 ±0.015. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 972 games (equiv. 26843 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | bar/21*/16 | 0.510 (-0.015) | |
| 1.1% 19.5% 62.4% 37.6% 9.2% 0.4% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.358 ±0.015. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 972 games (equiv. 25266 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||