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Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: Good roll. Now what? (Rich Munitz)
Date: Tuesday, 19 May 2009, at 4:31 a.m.
This was a particularly difficult choice. Stepping up to the 23 point seemed essential. Making the 5 point seemed essential. Hitting two blots is great to buy time. Leaving two blots in the home board is a recipe for disaster.
Ultimately, I hit two. I felt that stepping to the edge of the prime and putting two up created the direct path to victory and would therefore win more games outright. As John and Neil point out, at this score, the cube leverage is going to create more value after the hits if white fails to perform given the score (especially on the 4 dances), and also creating two-way gammonish positions where blue can turn the cube will also negate the value of white's gammons.
My opponent was nice enough to roll boxes and dance. I doubled, he passed.
I did a rather short Snowie rollout and the results are not particularly trustworthy. It shows the double hit ahead by a large margin with a live cube and the other play ahead by a narrow margin without live cube. I'm not sure whether to trust its play at score given all the gammons at play that may be worthless. Unforutunately I have not yet gotten off my lazy butt to learn GNU. If anyone has rolled this out, I'd certainly be interested to see the results. Otherwise, I'll eventually post the questionable Snowie results.
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