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BGonline.org Forums
Recube.
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Recube. (Christian Munk-Christensen)
Date: Friday, 22 May 2009, at 3:38 p.m.
White's 8-cube takepoint is around 31% plus ~40% of Blue's gammon chances. How often does Blue win a g here? Not that many I think since White's got that strong 5-point board and also since gammons are worth a little less than normal for Blue ATS. So White will frequently anchor when Blue hits the 2nd checker and then be a big fav to run off the g. OTOH, Blue wins around 40% g's if he does complete the closeout. My guesstimate is about 15% g's for Blue here. So White needs 37% to take and has virtually no recube vig since Blue's 16-cube takepoint is around 2% ATS. White can also win a gammon here of course but they are almost meaningless ATS (gammon price of <3%).
Does White have 37% cubeless chances in this position? Not very clear to me so redouble and let the opponent decide. Now the more difficult decision, should White take? The 14 hits are bad for White and 9 of the 22 misses play pretty well for Blue as well(D6,65,63,61,D5,D3). I don't think White wins over 25% of these so give him 5 3/4 wins in these 23 games. 37% of 36 is around 13.3 so White would need to win 7 1/2 of the 13 remaining games to take. I think he's at best even money in these other 13, so R/P looks right to me.
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