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Another boring speed board vs pips race

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Tuesday, 26 May 2009, at 3:03 p.m.

In Response To: Another boring speed board vs pips race (neilkaz)

White has a good distribution, and with two off already can't be wasting much more than the standard 7.5 pips, so his epc is 70.5.

Trice's stack-and-straggler formula for a single straggler is 3.5 * chequers + pip-count of the straggler, which gives us 52.5 + 17 = 69.5. However, there must be some misses when the blue chequer on the four point must be used to play a 3 or a 4, so there must be some wastage there. If it was on the three point, I'd count no wastage, and moving up those two pips can't be a complete waste, so I'll take a stab at one extra pip of wastage, for a total epc of, again, 70.5.

With an even epc, I would estimate that being on roll gives Blue about a 60% winning chance.

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