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match recube vs weaker opp #2

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Tuesday, 26 May 2009, at 5:10 p.m.

In Response To: match recube vs weaker opp #2 (neilkaz)

There's no way I'm not recubing this unless I happen to know that this guy takes everything. It never ceases to amaze me how many points I steal from weak players that drop clear takes in races. Against clearly inferior players, I tend to aim to double right around the technical drop point under the theory that if they know something about races in technical terms, they're likely to drop when they should take, and if they don't they may drop anyway. And if I overshoot that point, then they may still err the other way and take. This being a borderline take to begin with, and the pipcount lead being larger than the effective pipcount lead, I'd say there's got to be at least a 30% chance that this guy passes here. I think that compensates for the skill factor and the fact that you are correct that this is probably a technical no-double if we know for sure that the guy is taking.

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