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Rollout etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 1:12 a.m.

In Response To: Another boring speed board vs pips race (neilkaz)

OTB I could rather quickly tell that I should take a roll or two and try to give my opp a tougher cube decision so I held off and rolled and lost.

White's EPC is 70.2 and if I move my checker to the 13 pt mine is 66.6 so I don't think 70.6 will be far off. A lead is worth more in speed board positions than in pure pip count positions so I think my chances here are in the lower 60's..ie not good enough to play for match.

Note that with my checker on the 13 and the checker from my 5 on my 3 instead, my epc falls to 65.1 (Trice formula would give 65.5 so is close)

Everyone did a good job with this position here.

The score (after 0 games) is: Strong Opp 0, neilkaz 0 (match to 5 points)

Move number 5: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Strong Opp 63, neilkaz 42
Position ID: 7O4DAMDvjwAQAA Match ID: UgmgAAAAAAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0594)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.2369	(Money: +0.2369)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.4022
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5978
3.	Double, take	+0.3428	-0.0594
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (9.0%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player neilkaz owns 4-cube 0.6185 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3815 0.0000 0.0000 +0.2369 +0.4022 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0006 Player Strong Opp owns 8-cube 0.6181 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3819 0.0000 0.0000 +0.3428 +0.3428 Standard error 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1881 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858865526 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Another boring speed board vs pips race
  neilkaz -- Tuesday, 26 May 2009, at 3:57 a.m.
  • Another boring speed board vs pips race
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 26 May 2009, at 6:00 a.m.
    • Another boring speed board vs pips race
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 26 May 2009, at 10:01 a.m.
  • Another boring speed board vs pips race
    rew -- Tuesday, 26 May 2009, at 12:32 p.m.
  • Another boring speed board vs pips race
    Ian Shaw -- Tuesday, 26 May 2009, at 3:03 p.m.
  • Another boring speed board vs pips race
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 26 May 2009, at 4:26 p.m.
  • Rollout etc
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 1:12 a.m.
    • Rollout etc
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 2:21 a.m.
    • Rollout etc
      Sam Pottle -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 4:17 a.m.
      • Rollout etc
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 4:22 a.m.