[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Nearly match decisive bearoff cube vs Stick

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 11:52 a.m.

In Response To: Nearly match decisive bearoff cube vs Stick (neilkaz)

An 8 cube. What fun!

First of all, what's the takepoint? Blue passes to 9a 6a for 33%. Blue wins 8 to 1a 10a for 97%. Blue loses 8 for 9a 2a for 9%.

Blue risks 24% to gain 64%, so the takepoint is 24/88 = 27%, with almost no recube value. This is about 5% higher than for money, roughly where an initial double would be correct.

Blue has almost a pure 5-roll position (epc 36), only missing on 22 and consecutive 21s, so the epc is about 36.2.

White has ostensibly a four-roll position, but a lot of misses. I can't calculate the epc accurately, so I'll take a stab at calling it effectively a five-roll position, because the chance of going four rolls without an ace is about 1%.

A pure five-roll against five-roll position is an initial double and a take for money, so according to my match equity calculation, this is a double and a take.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.