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OTB ...rollout etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 6:25 p.m.

In Response To: Nearly match decisive bearoff cube vs Stick (neilkaz)

OTB, one simply has to spend some clock time on this.

1) Is there anything unusual going on with the score? ...clearly an 8 cube on Stick's side is for all practical purposes, dead..and it seems that his TP is going to be a bit higher than 25%. (Mentally I got to the correct 27% figure just to be sure)

2) How often do I win this game? Working from memory and checked by some rough calculations, I figured about 64.5% to 65%.

3) By how much am I losing my market if I gain a turn..(toss dubs or he misses) Significantly at this score it would seem.

4) However, perhaps I can do better to cash if I gain a turn on the next couple of sequences...but there's the prospect of huge market loss when I toss a set followed by his ace.

All things considered it had to be quite correct to cube a W/C player here and that is what I did. I'd have rolled vs clearly weaker players.

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 6, neilkaz 5 (match to 15 points)

Move number 5: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Stick 22, neilkaz 13
Position ID: 3gYAAP4MAAAAAA Match ID: UgngAWAAKAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.3050	(Money: +0.3050)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.6791
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.3209
3.	No double	+0.5893	-0.0898
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player neilkaz owns 4-cube 0.6525 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3475 0.0000 0.0000 +0.3050 +0.5893 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0005 Player Stick owns 8-cube 0.6525 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3475 0.0000 0.0000 +0.6970 +0.6791 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2248 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859234860 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Oh and the luck box didn't miss next turn and rolled boxes and I had to eat a 16 cube here !

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 6, neilkaz 5 (match to 15 points)

Move number 8: Stick on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Stick 4, neilkaz 4
Position ID: DwAAwAAAAAAAAA Match ID: AwHgAWAAKAAA

• Stick doubles

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless MWC		92.141%	(Money: +0.9074)
	0.9537 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0463 0.0000 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	95.370%
2.	Double, pass	96.147%	0.777%
3.	No double	92.141%	-3.229%
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take

Messages In This Thread

• Nearly match decisive bearoff cube vs Stick
  neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 4:01 a.m.
  • Nearly match decisive bearoff cube vs Stick
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 8:08 a.m.
  • Nearly match decisive bearoff cube vs Stick
    Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 11:52 a.m.
  • OTB ...rollout etc
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 6:25 p.m.