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You live long enough, you see everything

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Thursday, 28 May 2009, at 3:17 p.m.

In Response To: You live long enough, you see everything (Rich Munitz)

Wow! I am honestly shocked that it was such a blunder to not double this. But I suppose that sequences in which white hits back from the roof (or in which green fails to hit) become takes. It is frankly amazing to me that white can win this position 35% of the time (though white did win 100% of the time in the 1-game rollout I did). Perhaps Snowie is botching the play? Doubt it is misplaying that badly. If anything, I'd expect it to misplay white worse than green. I will keep this in mind should a similar situation ever arise in another 40 years.

ZurichMint (Green) vs. Opponent (White)
5 point Match

Match to 5. Score Green-White: 0-1

Move 11 Green		Pip: 173
		Game 2 5 point match Green-White: Score 0-1
		Pip: 155

Cube action equity
Rollout	Money equity:	0.631
	5.1% 34.1% 65.2% 34.8% 6.3% 0.2%
	95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.631 ±0.020, - live cube no double: 0.877 ±0.039, - live cube double take: 1.263 ±0.059. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 17290 games), played 3-ply (standard), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1.	Double, pass	1.000
2.	No double	0.882	(-0.118)
3.	Double, take	1.215	(+0.215)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
Live cube
1.	Double, pass	1.000
2.	No double	0.877	(-0.123)
3.	Double, take	1.263	(+0.263)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

This file has been generated bySnowie Professional Edition Version 4.7.1, a product of SnowieGroup SA
Output date: 11:04:45 PM, 5/27/2009(Export v2.10)

Messages In This Thread

• You live long enough, you see everything
  Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 24 May 2009, at 4:45 a.m.
  • You live long enough, you see everything
    Dan Pelton -- Sunday, 24 May 2009, at 5:53 a.m.
    • You live long enough, you see everything
      Michael Petch -- Sunday, 24 May 2009, at 6:02 a.m.
      • You live long enough, you see everything
        Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 24 May 2009, at 12:46 p.m.
        • You live long enough, you see everything
          Stein Kulseth -- Monday, 25 May 2009, at 11:48 a.m.
  • You live long enough, you see everything
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Sunday, 24 May 2009, at 8:17 a.m.
  • You live long enough, you see everything
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 24 May 2009, at 4:20 p.m.
  • You live long enough, you see everything
    neilkaz -- Monday, 25 May 2009, at 5:21 a.m.
  • You live long enough, you see everything
    Keene -- Monday, 25 May 2009, at 6:38 a.m.
  • You live long enough, you see everything
    rew -- Monday, 25 May 2009, at 11:50 a.m.
  • OTB / Snowie rollout started
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 25 May 2009, at 3:25 p.m.
  • You live long enough, you see everything
    Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 28 May 2009, at 3:17 p.m.