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OTB. long rollout ..etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 28 May 2009, at 4:56 p.m.

In Response To: Now that Bill had caught up in the match, was it time for a positionally oriented cube? (neilkaz)

OTB I thought a while and noted that I'd love to roll a 4 and don't mind an escaping 6 and seem to have a nice and generally lasting advantage with my 4 prime. My position is generally easy to play, while Bill's can be rather difficult if he runs out of time with a few checkers nearly primed. I am behind in the match and it seemed time for action, so I cubed. Bill took off course, but had some difficulties in the later play of the game and made some errors. Should I have cubed? Who knows, but it really cannot be too bad to force my opp to play this game out (at least for the sample of one)

The score (after 9 games) is: Bill_Riles 9, Neil_Kazaross 8 (match to 13 points)

Move number 20: Neil_Kazaross on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Bill_Riles 156, Neil_Kazaross 157
Position ID: bM5gBA6w2+BgIA Match ID: cAmgAZAAQAAA

• Neil_Kazaross doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4292	(Money: +0.4127)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.6717
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.3283
3.	No double	+0.6627	-0.0090
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6646 0.1814 0.0061 - 0.3354 0.0964 0.0077 +0.4292 +0.6627 Standard error 0.0016 0.0020 0.0005 - 0.0016 0.0020 0.0013 0.0051 0.0121 Player Bill_Riles owns 2-cube 0.6681 0.1834 0.0059 - 0.3319 0.0968 0.0118 +0.8713 +0.6717 Standard error 0.0021 0.0028 0.0008 - 0.0021 0.0024 0.0018 0.0137 0.0165
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1332 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859236480 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Now that Bill had caught up in the match, was it time for a positionally oriented cube?
  neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 4:18 a.m.
  • Now that Bill had caught up in the match, was it time for a positionally oriented cube?
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 8:04 a.m.
  • Now that Bill had caught up in the match, was it time for a positionally oriented cube?
    Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 12:14 p.m.
  • Now that Bill had caught up in the match, was it time for a positionally oriented cube?
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 27 May 2009, at 4:55 p.m.
  • GNU 2-ply
    joe freedman -- Thursday, 28 May 2009, at 11:05 a.m.
  • OTB. long rollout ..etc
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 28 May 2009, at 4:56 p.m.
  • Now that Bill had caught up in the match, was it time for a positionally oriented cube?
    Jason Lee -- Thursday, 28 May 2009, at 5:08 p.m.