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OTB and rollouts

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 29 May 2009, at 2:47 a.m.

In Response To: Desperation redouble time ?!?! (neilkaz)

I think I'm 100-150 ELO stronger than this opp, so if this was a big money round I'd have held onto the cube, but wanting to play one of these Tandem Team matches at a good ER, I recubed since I was pretty certain it was justified and it renders the near 40% G's I lose meaningless.

The score (after 1 game) is: IBC_GoBigRed 2, neilkaz 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 54: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?


2X1O2X1O4X4X ' '2O ' '1X

'2O2O2O '2O ' ' '1X2O1X

Pip counts: IBC_GoBigRed 92, neilkaz 153
Position ID: M++BEgC2GQwGSQ Match ID: UgkgASAAAAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity -0.1929(Money: -0.4080)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.0844
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.9156
3.No double +0.0378 -0.0466
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player neilkaz owns 4-cube0.43680.14080.0168-0.56320.39230.0468 -0.1929 +0.0378
Standard error0.00240.00270.0021-0.00240.00700.0050 0.0069 0.0088
Player IBC_GoBigRed owns 8-cube0.44110.12760.0249-0.55890.42700.0615 +0.0844 +0.0844
Standard error0.00270.00310.0035-0.00270.00980.0066 0.0104 0.0104
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
636 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859293504 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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