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Try to end this match properly

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 29 May 2009, at 3:52 a.m.

In Response To: Try to end this match properly (Bill Riles)

Dang, wish I was as fast as Bill, took me a few minutes. I looked at two things:

First:

Suppose you hit. How much is lost after getting hit back? If you had taken two off you would be better than 83% even if he covers the ace blot and have a super efficient cash. If he fails to cover the ace you are still too good, though cashing is a miniscule error. If you instead hit then you would be about 76% after being hit if he covers the ace point. There is no volatility but in a couple rolls you will probasbly double him in and have lost 5% MWC or so. If he hits and does not cover it looks like a DT right away and you have lost 1 or 2%. 5*5 + 6*1.5 = 34. The loss is about 1% MWC.

Now suppose there is no hit. Do the extra gammon chances from sending him back two pips gain 1% MWC? A gammon win instead of a single win gains about 18% so the two pips would need to swing the gammon 1/18 times. So count up and see if there 72 swings. Ignoring the chance of blue rolling a double for now (which makes the gammon hunting play even less good) we need to find 72 swings in white next 2 rolls. Only 65 and 33 swing it to a direct save and these save about 40. 44 saves 2. 1's don' swing anything. Other numbers at best give 1 extra working double. The swings aren't enough.

Take off two. Next.

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