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Snowie stats: Expected winnings and luck rate

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Saturday, 30 May 2009, at 2:21 p.m.

In Response To: Snowie stats: Expected winnings and luck rate (Klaus Evers)

I think the first question is perfectly valid. If you repeat the analysis in gnubg, and replace Snowie's favorite percentage by gnubg's luck adjusted result, you should get what you expect: If B's actual result is better than B's luck adjusted result, then B has been lucky (i.e. B has had a more positive luck rate than A). Is this obvious?

Anyway, with Snowie it doesn't work, because the favorite-% is based on error analysis and the luck rate is calculated as in gnubg - a luck analysis. If Snowie's evaluation were perfect, they would always be consistent, unfortunately it isn't.

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