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OTB and rollout.
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: Chicago Final (64 to play) (Coolrey)
Date: Monday, 1 June 2009, at 4:02 p.m.
I almost made this play reflexively, but stopped to consider because it was DMP in the finals. My choices as I saw them were bringing two down, (my instinct), and making the 2 point. I did not consider breaking the anchor but my rollout showed it to be 3rd best and only wrong by .044 to leave with both men. This should illustrate just how strong Blue's position is already!
I have always found it nauseating to make a play just to avoid leaving shots. The normal argument goes like this: I don't want to leave him 8 shots to hit me! I have a contrarian point of view in situations like this.
If I challenge my opponent to roll well or die, eventually he fails to roll well... and dies. If there are 8 shots that hit, then there are 28 that don't. How much better can it get? ZERO is a low number, but even if White fans you have some work to do after making the 2 point... Get missed here, with my play, and then you build a nice 5 prime, unless you roll some kinda set in which case you can run from your anchor in safety.
Rory commented to me about this move after the match, saying that on the (6,4) play... I should have made the two point, and gave me the "all knowing" nod.
Sigh. Apparently we were both doing the things we do best; ie: him directing a tournament and me playing in the finals of the tournament.
I just rolled this out until one play appears to be best... So, Stick or Neil can roll it out longer, but even if making the 2 point ends up being the right play... I will continue to make mistakes like this by forcing my opponent to roll well to survive.
Larry Taylor rolled (5,3), and said: "Ray, it wouldn't be any fun if I didn't hit!". Then I missed his blot on the 2 point with a (5,1). He was right, it wasn't any fun not hitting.
1. Rollout 13/9 13/7 Eq.: +0.440
0.720 0.334 0.035 - 0.280 0.076 0.002 CL +0.440 CF +0.440
[0.004 0.019 0.006 - 0.004 0.011 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.007]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
241 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856427192 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 1.96 (min. 108 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 8/2* 6/2 Eq.: +0.420 ( -0.020)
0.710 0.346 0.034 - 0.290 0.076 0.002 CL +0.420 CF +0.420
[0.004 0.017 0.009 - 0.004 0.009 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.007]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
241 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856427192 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 1.96 (min. 108 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 20/16 20/14 Eq.: +0.396 ( -0.044)
0.698 0.283 0.028 - 0.302 0.118 0.009 CL +0.396 CF +0.396
[0.006 0.030 0.007 - 0.006 0.017 0.005 CL 0.012 CF 0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
107 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856427192 and quasi-random dice
Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 1.96 (min. 108 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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