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Critical match score recube decision vs MCG
Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: Critical match score recube decision vs MCG (neilkaz)
Date: Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 4:16 a.m.
This is a nasty position. Huge money drop. Blue wins a ton of gammons. In fact, I imagine a large majority of blue's wins are gammons. And getting gammoned loses the match. But not so fast.
Does white have a take? If white drops, he is down -5,-9 which is about 28%. White has tremendous recube leverage at this score as a recube to 8 creates overage and kills blue's gammons. So let's say white takes and immediately reships to 8. Then blue's gammons don't matter. Losing puts him at 0%, winning at about 91%. Risking 28% to gain 63%. 28/(28+63) = 28/91 which is 31%. Well white's got to be winning this at least 31% of the time easy. So the take is clear. Then add all of the extra value with white holding the cube (rather than reshipping immediately) and white will win a few gammons and the match, the take is huge.
Given how huge the take has got to be, and that most of the time that blue wins, he gets 4 points anyway, my sense is that it is technically best to hold the cube. If I'm Neil, I don't want to give my opponent a chance to decide this match on this one game. However, if this was a much weaker opponent playing blue against Neil, they had better ship this. Throw the match on the line right here in a favorable position. I'm sure this would not be a double Neil would be happy to see.
ND/T
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