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Rollout and OTB

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 2:30 p.m.

In Response To: Results so far (neilkaz)

OTB when watching this match. Stick's opp split his 62, and at this score Stick, quite correctly I think per GG rollouts hit and made the 5 pt with his 33, and then he had a very clear cube after the opps 54, but a cube that GNU thinks the opp can still take.

Stick's 44 is a great shot and after a bit of thought he played it as I would've making the 9 and 2 pts. I also just couldn't stomach the switch and wanted to put these checkers from my stack into play.

The rollout shows that the switch is slightly best but as not clear as GNU's evals think. Based on skill factor, (Stick is stronger as usual) Stick's choice isn't so bad, since he's better than 50% if he just wins the game and since there's really not much skill for the opp if he's blitzed off the board after the switch.

The score (after 0 games) is: Bariclaw 7, Stick 5 (match to 9 points)

Move number 6: Stick to play 44

Bariclaw	157
Stick	155
Position ID: 4HPkESCwr+ABMA Match ID: QQkyAXAAKAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/20 13/9* 5/1*(2)	+0.9332
			0.6397 0.3269 0.0397 - 0.3603 0.1212 0.0242 +0.9332 +0.9332 0.0012 0.0013 0.0023 - 0.0012 0.0032 0.0019 0.0034 0.0034
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			3948 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856518550 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/9*(2) 6/2(2)	+0.9158 ( -0.0174)
			0.6585 0.2994 0.0473 - 0.3415 0.1168 0.0187 +0.9158 +0.9158 0.0012 0.0013 0.0023 - 0.0012 0.0029 0.0015 0.0035 0.0035
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			3944 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856518550 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/9*(2) 5/1*(2)	+0.8964 ( -0.0368)
			0.6199 0.3283 0.0267 - 0.3801 0.1254 0.0351 +0.8964 +0.8964 0.0039 0.0041 0.0054 - 0.0039 0.0087 0.0099 0.0112 0.0112
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			379 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856518550 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	24/20 13/9* 6/2(2)	+0.8714 ( -0.0617)
			0.6516 0.2841 0.0554 - 0.3484 0.1164 0.0214 +0.8714 +0.8714 0.0048 0.0052 0.0107 - 0.0048 0.0110 0.0057 0.0150 0.0150
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			273 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856518550 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	4	13/9*/5 6/2(2)	+0.9146 ( -0.0186)
			0.6353 0.3220 0.0174 - 0.3647 0.0958 0.0045
	6	4	24/20 13/9*/1*	+0.9102 ( -0.0230)
			0.6307 0.3244 0.0186 - 0.3693 0.0975 0.0049
	7	4	13/9*/1* 13/9	+0.8833 ( -0.0499)
			0.6081 0.3335 0.0183 - 0.3919 0.1162 0.0076
	8	4	24/20(2) 13/9*(2)	+0.7936 ( -0.1396)
			0.6598 0.2370 0.0124 - 0.3402 0.0661 0.0017
	9	4	13/9* 8/4 6/2(2)	+0.7926 ( -0.1406)
			0.6053 0.2910 0.0162 - 0.3947 0.1147 0.0074

Messages In This Thread

• Early attacking 44 at GG to play
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 30 May 2009, at 9:32 p.m.
  • Early attacking 44 at GG to play
    pontiac -- Saturday, 30 May 2009, at 9:45 p.m.
  • Early attacking 44 at GG to play
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 30 May 2009, at 10:14 p.m.
  • Early attacking 44 at GG to play
    Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 30 May 2009, at 10:20 p.m.
  • Early attacking 44 at GG to play
    Marv Porten -- Saturday, 30 May 2009, at 11:37 p.m.
  • Early attacking 44 at GG to play
    Keene -- Sunday, 31 May 2009, at 7:31 a.m.
  • Early attacking 44 at GG to play
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 31 May 2009, at 2:31 p.m.
  • Early attacking 44 at GG to play
    Bill Riles -- Sunday, 31 May 2009, at 3:00 p.m.
  • Early attacking 44 at GG to play
    mikeg -- Sunday, 31 May 2009, at 7:42 p.m.
  • Early attacking 44 at GG to play
    Coolrey -- Sunday, 31 May 2009, at 8:40 p.m.
  • Rollout will be posted in a couple days
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 31 May 2009, at 10:12 p.m.
    • Results so far
      neilkaz -- Monday, 1 June 2009, at 8:00 p.m.
      • Rollout and OTB
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 2:30 p.m.