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Scum Dog Dice

Posted By: Coolrey
Date: Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 10:14 p.m.

In Response To: Chicago Open Hedge Movie (David)

Yes! I realized that later... But that is a good justification for getting a price on the insurance. If you are afraid to get hit, you pay it! Maybe Larry just didn't get it or was confused or thought I was taking advantage of him... I dunno. Anyway Larry believed he was the "Slum Dog Millionaire" and it was his DESTINY to win... QEQ!@#!#ED~! dice.

I didn't feel too confident when I was about to roll, and I have gone over that situation many times in my mind...

If I hit, I was 90-95% to win the game and the match, and an extra $4K. So, I could have bet $2000 v. $4000... But what a bad beat it would be to then HIT and still LOSE. Wow. Btw I have won an insurance bet like this because someone hit me, so I won the bet, and then I won the game and match anyway... The proverbial double-whammy!

It's common situation that not everyone recognizes... The principals are going to have the money to pay off, as opposed to outsiders who offer insurance bets, and then when they lose realize they didn't make a little money, like they planned, they lost a LOT of money! They might stiff you, but not your well heeled opponent in the finals.

Note to all "BOOGERS": I am available to sell insurance in your matches, just call me over when the critical moment of your match comes up. It adds some fun, flavor, and protection to the proceedings. I will make a profit in the long run, but you will get a consolation prize if your opponent gets lucky and hits you. So it's a win-win situation!

I would have been glad to receive $500 25 times, and pay out $1000 11 times. Larry made a reasonable request to do it according to the true odds, but that would definitely be a long term loser for me because of the bad beat scenario which happens about 5-10% of the time. In the end my offer was probably too fair! I should have said 1500 if I miss v. 2200 if I hit or something and negotiated down from there. By the way: There is a worse possible beat in the position for LARRY though, look for it when you check out the video and see if you can find it!

Messages In This Thread

• Chicago Open Hedge Movie
  Bill Davis -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 8:03 p.m.
  • Chicago Open Hedge Movie
    David -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 9:22 p.m.
    • Scum Dog Dice
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 10:14 p.m.
    • Chicago Open Hedge Movie
      Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 3 June 2009, at 1:43 a.m.
      • Chicago Open Hedge Movie
        Coolrey -- Wednesday, 3 June 2009, at 3:23 a.m.
  • Chicago Open Hedge Movie -- rollout
    joe freedman -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 10:26 p.m.