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Long / Close Rollouts

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 3 June 2009, at 9:36 p.m.

In Response To: Long / Close Rollouts (David Rockwell)

David, I have had exactly the same thoughts about combining second roll results to derive better first roll results. It is a valuable, though tedious and manually intensive and potentially error prone process. And there are technical problems as you say, like not having any second roll rollout results for Next plays like 64P 31P. But this kind of crunching of the numbers is best done by software, not people.

I was under the impression that as an additional variance reduction method, that GNU would evenly distribute rollouts amongst the 36, 1296, 46656 etc. unique roll combinations, depending upon rollout length. So in effect, it is already enumerating all of the N-roll combinations.

Wouldn't it be a great feature if after doing 139K rollouts, the bot actually kept track of the breakdown of sub-rollouts it had to do with each of these dice combinations? And it could then show you each "second roll" sub-rollout result? And maybe even allow extensions of particular sub-rollouts? Or to add rollouts of other candidate plays for second roll and use the better play of the two for computing first-roll equities. Etc.

How often do we roll out positions and then say we don't trust the results because it is clearly misplaying the position? What if we could see how it is playing the position for the next roll and if we spot a play that looks just plain wrong, tell it to roll out an alternative play and use the new results if they are superior?

Anyway, it just seems to be an incredible waste of processing power to do full (non-truncated) rollouts of a first roll position, where it is obviously along the way rolling out and averaging second and third roll positions, and yet when it is done we have no information whatsoever on the sub-results already collected of those second and third roll positions. We must set up that second roll position separately and redo all of those same rollouts.

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