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Nice anal, but rollout sends us to BK

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 4:46 a.m.

In Response To: Critical match score recube decision vs MCG (John O'Hagan)

I also cubed OTB once I realized that I wasn't TG. I suspected Matt had a take, and once I was rather sure that he had a take, all I had to do was to try to figure if he had more than 30% cubeless total wins...since his ME is 27.3% if he passes (G11 and NN's) ..if he wins 30% and then wins 91% from 8-2 his ME is also 30% (ignoring the rare G..ie close enuf)

So...what I have learned in these position types is that if the opp definately can do better by taking and rewhipping to 8 no matter what, then, and noting so many of my wins are G's, I probably don't have a proper recube.

The issue here is that Matt wins lots more than 30%..ie sending us to BK.

The score (after 1 game) is: atrifix 0, neilkaz 2 (match to 9 points)

Move number 29: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: atrifix 158, neilkaz 131
Position ID: zObgIFC2c8AAEw Match ID: UQkgAQAAEAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.1754)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6593	(Money: +0.7224)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.7681
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2319
3.	Double, take	+0.5927	-0.1754
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (43.1%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player neilkaz owns 2-cube 0.6612 0.4601 0.0334 - 0.3388 0.0890 0.0046 +0.6593 +0.7681 Standard error 0.0013 0.0019 0.0021 - 0.0013 0.0013 0.0007 0.0041 0.0059 Player atrifix owns 4-cube 0.6656 0.4894 0.0668 - 0.3344 0.0809 0.0134 +1.0084 +0.5927 Standard error 0.0015 0.0041 0.0038 - 0.0015 0.0014 0.0016 0.0085 0.0120
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2072 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856555664 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Critical match score recube decision vs MCG
  neilkaz -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 1:53 a.m.
  • Critical match score recube decision vs MCG
    Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 4:16 a.m.
  • Critical match score recube decision vs MCG
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 8:49 a.m.
  • Critical match score recube decision vs MCG
    Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 9:46 a.m.
  • Who is MCG?
    joe freedman -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 11:49 a.m.
    • Who is MCG?
      dc-ohio -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 11:58 a.m.
  • Critical match score recube decision vs MCG
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 2 June 2009, at 12:01 p.m.
    • Nice anal, but rollout sends us to BK
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 4:46 a.m.
      • Nice anal, but rollout sends us to BK
        Stick -- Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 4:58 a.m.
      • Nice anal, but rollout sends us to BK
        John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 11:18 a.m.