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Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 12 April 2007, at 7:40 a.m.

In Response To: More Double Aces (Stick)

This came up playing Snowie again of course. I stopped and considered all 3 plays ... counting up how many spare pips I had to play, how many White had to play before he crashed, tried to figure out the "what ifs" of if I roll an immediate two, and I made the right play ... but jesus christ it shouldn't have been that hard! I posted it because I was swayed as a couple others were too to actually consider the other plays as real options. They aren't, this is probably the biggest next in the world that I can see a lot of players getting wrong. As Neil put so eloquently, you have to count those pips when you crash and keep your five prime and White only has a five prime. You might get lucky & 62 or 2x then a 6, etc...

Money Game
133
134
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 3 8/7(2) 6/5(2) 0.134
0.9% 15.1% 48.0% 52.0% 15.4% 0.9%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
2 3 24/22(2) -0.205 (-0.339)
0.4% 8.7% 35.7% 64.3% 13.3% 0.7%
Speed Parameter: Precise.
3 3 24/22 6/5(2) -0.213 (-0.347)
0.5% 11.5% 38.1% 61.9% 22.1% 1.3%
Speed Parameter: Precise.

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