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Long / Close Rollouts

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 10:18 p.m.

In Response To: Long / Close Rollouts (David Rockwell)

I'll try. I talked about this a few months ago but many told me they couldn't follow it. Let me explain by way of a couple examples.

Example 1: Suppose that you know that a future event will be determined by a coin flip. You get to choose which of 4 coins will be tossed. As a test you toss them each 100000 times and find:

coin A: 50.16% H's coin B: 49.82% H's coin C: 50.24% H's coin D: 49.88% H's

You choose coin C and pat yourself on the back. Your hard work paid off with about .2% extra win chance.

Example 2: Now let's suppose you want to know what your win % is at DMP if you roll a 43 and play it correctly. Note this might be important if you are actually leading 2 away 1 away post Crawford since you may use the free drop. You rollout 4 plays 1000 times (let's say without V.R) and obtain the following: D: 50.4% U: 50.1% S: 49.9% Z: 49.7% You conclude that you should play 2 down and should not use the free drop.

In both of these examples we do not have much certainty that the play which is actually best is the one which won the rollout. It could have been a subpar play (or all plays could be tied) that got lucky. The winner is more likely to have gotten lucky than to have gotten unlucky and thus the winner has a result which is on average higher than its actual value.

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