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Bear in against holding game

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Friday, 5 June 2009, at 12:35 p.m.

In Response To: Bear in against holding game (Ian Shaw)

The clearing play comes in as a huge error, which came as a surprise to me. I certainly didn't fancy blotting the nine and four points when White has a four point board.

Looking at 9/4 9/8, I can see it gains on 12 rolls [4,5,6] with [1,3] if Blue can hit the shot, but loses on the 11 deuces. It doesn't look enough to me, but perhaps the race it just too dire if White breaks contact. This would explain why holding the three-prime and playing inside also does well.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 5, Blue 1 (match to 11 points)

Move number 3: Blue to play 51

White	68
Blue	89
Position ID: 9+4AwAB2NtsAAA Match ID: cIlmAVAACAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	9/4 3/2	-0.089
			0.449 0.032 0.001 - 0.551 0.023 0.000 -0.091 -0.089 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856446479 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	6/1 3/2	-0.127 ( -0.038)
			0.439 0.023 0.000 - 0.561 0.026 0.000 -0.125 -0.127 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856446479 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	6/1 2/1	-0.158 ( -0.069)
			0.429 0.019 0.000 - 0.571 0.024 0.000 -0.149 -0.158 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856446479 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	9/4 5/4	-0.158 ( -0.069)
			0.432 0.032 0.001 - 0.568 0.025 0.000 -0.127 -0.158 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			644 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856446479 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	6/5 6/1	-0.201 ( -0.112)
			0.413 0.016 0.000 - 0.587 0.016 0.000 -0.174 -0.201 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			323 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856446479 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	8/2	-0.213 ( -0.124)
			0.411 0.031 0.001 - 0.589 0.022 0.000 -0.166 -0.213 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856446479 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	R	9/8 9/4	-0.259 ( -0.170)
			0.423 0.017 0.000 - 0.577 0.003 0.000 -0.142 -0.259 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.002 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856446479 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	8	R	10/9 10/5	-0.395 ( -0.306)
			0.362 0.008 0.000 - 0.638 0.003 0.000 -0.270 -0.395 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856446479 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Bear in against holding game
  Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 8:10 a.m.
  • Bear in against holding game
    pontiac -- Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 8:46 a.m.
  • Bear in against holding game
    Stein Kulseth -- Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 9:56 a.m.
  • Bear in against holding game
    misja -- Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 10:18 a.m.
  • Bear in against holding game
    Neil Robins -- Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 10:41 a.m.
  • Bear in against holding game
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 4 June 2009, at 4:25 p.m.
  • Bear in against holding game
    Ian Shaw -- Friday, 5 June 2009, at 12:35 p.m.
    • Bear in against holding game - adjusted
      Ian Shaw -- Friday, 5 June 2009, at 12:46 p.m.
    • Bear in against holding game
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 5 June 2009, at 4:20 p.m.
      • Bear in against holding game
        Ian Shaw -- Sunday, 7 June 2009, at 11:04 p.m.