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Big Rollout - Big TCTC

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 16 April 2007, at 2:57 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. April 12th -- Play (Stick)

I didn't think this would be so close, luckily I let it run while I was away this weekend because I couldn't figure out any last minute rollout to fire up. My inclination was to run like everyone else except John, bar/18. As pointed out running out tries to escape your last checker, which if successful, you'll have a huge advantage since my 3 checkers are currently stuck behind a 4 prime. [even though the race is even] The problem with running out is it gives me sixes to hit, and little numbers to either cover (if I hit) or plain anchor up if I toss small/small. Means you won't have a cube for some time. If hitting works, I enter w/a lame duck, could be dp next turn (or even TG I imagine if I fan?) The gammons shoot up 9% by hitting and lose only 6% more making the tradeoff very close since hitting loses 1% more games. Looking @ it now I think I prefer hitting, hoping White enters with a poor roll even thought the plays are way TCTC. (behind in the match by even 2 pts. swings me a bit for the gammons too)

The score (after 1 game) is: Stick 2, Readers 0 (match to 13 points)

Move number 14: Readers to play 34

Stick141


'1X '2X4X3X ' ' ' ' '4O

1X '1X1X2O3O2O3O ' ' '2X

Readers143

Position ID: snfAACWw28EDQA Match ID: cImxASAAAAAA

• Readers moves bar/18

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/22 8/4* +0.4613
0.61920.19820.0134-0.38080.16710.0052 +0.2894 +0.4613
0.00070.00080.0003-0.00070.00070.0002 0.0020 0.0052
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1060457591 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
• 2 R bar/18 +0.4612 ( -0.0001)
0.62980.10800.0055-0.37020.10660.0019 +0.2741 +0.4612
0.00070.00100.0002-0.00070.00080.0002 0.0019 0.0047
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1060457591 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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