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BGonline.org Forums
before the flood of LA problems...
Posted By: Rich Munitz In Response To: before the flood of LA problems... (Chuck Bower)
Date: Sunday, 14 June 2009, at 5:50 a.m.
How often can white win this? Blue has 14 covers, 22 misses. Of the 22 misses, figure white hits 7 and misses 15. When white hits, I think blue is still a favorite on average since white is still behind a 4-prime and blue has builders and an outfield advantage. So say white gets 3.5 wins of the 7 here. Of the 15 misses, blue is now a favorite to cover (8) and if not (7) wins 1/3 * 1/2 of the remainder = about 1. In the count above, blue completes the closeout without getting hit about 27/36 times, but will lose about 7% of those (about 2). White wins 3.5+1+2 = 6.5 / 36 = 18.1%.
What's the takepoint?
If white passes, its -3,-7 = 24%. So if white takes and reships immediately, white needs 24% wins, so holding the cube the takepoint will be several percent lower. Will it drop to 18%? I doubt that since white will double if he hits and blue will have an easy take, so the cube will not be very efficient. But he will gain value from retaining 9% MWC when he never hits and never turns the cube.
RD/P
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