[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

before the flood of LA problems...

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 14 June 2009, at 2:20 p.m.

In Response To: before the flood of LA problems... (Chuck Bower)

Can White take? ATS, my OTB estimates are that his naive 4-cube takepoint (if he just takes and never recubes) is around 24% less approx 64% of his gammon chances. If White wins 1 1/2% gammons this lowers his naive takepoint to 23%. Blue's 8-cube takepoint is whatever you think is his equity at -5 -3 (I use 35%). Recube vig is usually worth around 70% of the naive takepoint*oppt's takepoint at the next level, about 5.6% here. This means White needs cubeless chances of 17.4% to take.

Does he win this often? If Blue closes his board and had perfect distribution vs. White's two men off, Blue would win about 93%. The distribution is less than perfect here so I'll use 92%. Blue covers with 14 numbers, so White wins 1.7 of these 14. That leaves 22/36 games to be decided. I will assume that Blue doesn't lift his blot with aces or switch points with 22 or 44. This might not be correct with 44 but the effect is probably small and it makes the analysis easier. Of these 22, White rolls a deuce 30% of the time and it's then anybody's game. How many of these 6.6 games should go in White's win column? I think he's still a dog since 7/11 don't escape and Blue will have a fine chance to hit as White tries to get around the board. Maybe White wins 3 of these 6.6. That's 4.7 wins in 20.6 games. 15.4 to go.

By now Blue mostly will have a 2nd direct cover number which makes him about a 6.5/1 fav to cover before being hit back (24/36 x 36/36 to 12/36 x 11/36). Giving White the same 8%/ a little less than half as above gives White about 2.1 wins in these 15.4 games.

That totals 6.8 wins in 36 games, close to 19%. So it looks like a take. Blue's recube looks clear for several reasons: 1) My estimates could be off and maybe White is supposed to pass 2) Lots of people will pass even if they're technically supposed to take 3) The position's so volatile that you're probably supposed to recube even if you're sure the oppt will correctly take.

R/T looks right to me.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.