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before the flood of LA problems...

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 14 June 2009, at 3:49 p.m.

In Response To: before the flood of LA problems... (adambulldog)

Don't know of any published analysis but I learned it from Chuck Bower. Seems in the ballpark if you think of it in terms of cubeless winning chances needed to take in a gammonless position for money. 25% - 25%*25%*70% = 20.6%. If you think 20.6% is too low, then changing the multiplier to 60% gives a cubeless takepoint of 21.25%. IIRC, Chuck sez the trailer/leader in the match can usually use a figure higher/lower than 70%. Cube efficiency plays a role here as well. If your recubes rate to be real inefficient, the cube is worth less than normal. i.e., say you own the cube and have an anchor in the oppt's board and a shot appears when you have a prime and the oppt has 0-3 men off. If you hit the shot it will go D/P but you'd be a big fav to win the game anyway so cube ownership is worth less than normal in this kind of position.

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