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A NEXT ?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 15 June 2009, at 2:45 p.m.

In Response To: A NEXT ? (neilkaz)

IIRC, Stick's RO'S for these kind of positions were roughly: If you close out one checker and have perfect distribution you're 97.5%; If the oppt anchors on the ace you win about 94%; If you close out 2 checkers you're about 99% to win.

If you don't hit now, I think you're about 96.5%(You won't always have perfect distribution when you close him out and sometimes you'll roll a series of bad numbers and won't be able to roll your prime in smoothly without have to break it to hit loose or switch points).

So hitting risks 2.5% to gain 2.5% which means it's right to hit if you think you're a favorite to close both out. I think you are so I'd hit.

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