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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 25 November 2006, at 11:47 a.m.

In Response To: OLM - Th. Nov. 23rd (Stick)

  • bar/22 11/10 - 2 votes
  • bar/24 13/10 - 1 vote
  • bar/24 11/8 - 3 votes

Your play is a bit too static. While much better than the offensively wide open bar/24 13/10 which strips the mid, leaves two blots in the outfield and fails to try to get an anchor or connect the back men but goes after the 5 point willy nilly style. After the best play, bar/22 11/10 your back men are working to wiggle out, either forming an anchor or simply escaping. (you are ahead in the race) Also 11/10 duplicates the hitting 5-3 and you'll notice 6-2 does not hit so it's far fewer shots than one would think glancing at the position.


Match to 25, tied at 0
167
155
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/22 11/10 0.104
0.9% 15.7% 52.9% 47.1% 14.0% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.076 ±0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 33501 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R bar/24 11/8 0.086 (-0.018)
0.7% 15.3% 52.6% 47.4% 14.1% 0.9%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.062 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 37539 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R bar/22 24/23 0.038 (-0.067)
1.3% 16.8% 50.9% 49.1% 15.9% 1.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.030 ±0.027. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 10119 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
4 R bar/24 13/10 0.034 (-0.071)
1.1% 16.8% 50.8% 49.2% 15.4% 1.3%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.026 ±0.026. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 9511 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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