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BGonline.org Forums
OTB thoughts
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: LA Super32 semis recube to 8 (Jason Lee)
Date: Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 4:02 a.m.
OTB, I had just recubed two shakes ago when Jason was on the roof, and he'd just entered with a nice 64. I'd spent some time and did the math when I recubed and was quite certain that it was an enormous money pass and had doubts that Jason could win even 16% cubeless when I recubed.
I thought that he'd take it, and felt that it was likely his best chance to win the match, but that in spite of that, my recube was clear since I could close him out with 3 shots and failing that, I was certain of definate market loss (even factoring in any skill differential if he danced on my 5 pt board)
If Jason recubes me here, I am under absolutely no pressure whatever. I have allready figured that I was getting back an 8 cube if he took the difficult cube at 4. Mentally I am prepared to take and under zero mental pressure.
Did I want him to recube here? No...but it isn't the worst thing in the world to me if he does since I have nothing the think about except rolling big.
Anyhow...there's plenty of time for him to recube later, but if he tosses a big set and I roll small, I will correctly pass. The bots may say that this is a close decision with two perfect players, but here, I don't believe that Jason should take the chance of losing his market.
He should recube me here, but playing someone lessor skilled it may make sense to see if they screw up and make a bad cube decision later.
Look at it this way...if Jason loses, the MET gives him 3.85% MWC..so..WTF..just throw the cube back at me and be ahead 11-8 if you win it.
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